Rising Waters in the Chenab
he Chenab River in Pakistan has reached an extremely high flood level, with water discharge at the Trimmu Headworks climbing to 479,743 cusecs, according to official figures released on Sunday. In some areas, the situation has become so critical that authorities have even considered seeking army air support for rescue operations. The surge has raised concerns about potential breaches and the safety of nearby settlements.
At the Panjnad Headworks, water inflows have also risen, though officials said the situation there remains under control. In contrast, water levels at the Khanki and Qadirabad barrages have receded, reducing the threat from high floods to a medium level.
Situation Across Other Rivers
The Ravi River has also seen a gradual decrease in water flow at the Balloki Headworks, now down to 175,000 cusecs. Despite the decline, the river continues to be in an extremely high flood condition, raising concerns for downstream communities.
At Shahdara, near Lahore, medium-level flooding has been reported, with both inflow and outflow recorded at nearly 67,900 cusecs.
Meanwhile, in the Sutlej River, data from the Ganda Singh Wala point was not immediately available. However, at the Sulemanki Headworks, the situation remains critical, with water discharge measured at 134,000 cusecs.
Official Warnings and Possible Breaches
Irfan Ali Kathia, Director General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), said Trimmu Headworks could witness inflows as high as 900,000 cusecs later today. If pressure mounts further at Sadhnai, authorities may be forced to create intentional breaches to ease the water load and protect more populated areas.
Similarly, inflows at the Muhammadwala Headworks are projected to reach 800,000 cusecs. Officials are considering pre-emptive measures, including breaching, should the need arise.
“The situation is being closely monitored, and all district commissioners have been placed on high alert,” Kathia said, stressing the importance of preparedness in the face of rapidly changing water levels.
Lack of Coordination with India Raises Concerns
Kathia also noted that India has not shared any official data regarding water releases from the Salal Dam, located 78 kilometers upstream of Marala Headworks. This lack of coordination complicates efforts to predict downstream flooding, leaving Pakistani authorities in uncertainty about how much water will eventually reach the Marala region where flood alerts are already in place.
Flood management in the region is heavily dependent on timely data exchange between the two countries. Under the Indus Waters Treaty, both sides are expected to share hydrological information, particularly during flood situations. However, gaps in communication have often been a recurring issue.
Communities on Edge
Authorities have already directed all commissioners and deputy commissioners to maintain heightened vigilance and ensure rapid response in case of emergency evacuations. Villages situated along riverbanks and in low-lying areas face the greatest risk.
In Punjab, seasonal flooding has historically displaced thousands of people. During major floods in 2014 and 2010, millions were forced from their homes, and agricultural lands suffered extensive damage. Experts warn that if the forecasted inflows materialize, this year’s floods could also bring significant hardship to rural populations dependent on farming.
Broader Context
Pakistan remains highly vulnerable to riverine flooding, particularly during the monsoon season, which typically spans July to September. Heavy rainfall in catchment areas and water releases from upstream dams in India often exacerbate the crisis.
Climate change has further complicated the situation, with unpredictable monsoon patterns and more intense rainfall events. A World Bank report estimated that nearly 715,000 people in Pakistan are exposed to river floods annually, with economic losses running into billions of dollars.
Outlook
While floodwaters have slightly receded in some rivers, the risk remains severe across the Chenab and Sutlej basins. Disaster management teams are on standby, and authorities are urging residents in vulnerable areas to remain alert and follow official instructions.
The coming 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the water levels stabilize or further breaches become necessary to manage the pressure on Pakistan’s aging flood infrastructure.
