Islamabad — A Potential Shift After Months of High Prices
Pakistan appears ready for a significant adjustment in fuel prices starting 1 December 2025. The latest indications from industrial and government sources suggest that the upcoming 15-day pricing cycle may offer noticeable relief to consumers. For many families already coping with inflation, the possibility of lower fuel costs creates a sense of cautious optimism.
A recent analysis on Pakistan’s fuel pricing trends also noted similar projections, including possible cuts of up to PKR 6 per liter, as reported here: Pakistan Considers Cutting Fuel Prices by Up to PKR 6 per Liter
Moreover, officials attribute this expected decline to an improvement in global fuel supply. Kuwait’s Al-Zour refinery, which recently restored a number of its production units, increased the availability of refined petroleum products. Consequently, international markets stabilized, and Pakistan gained room to revise prices downward.
Early Trends Show Clear Price Declines
Preliminary calculations based on 13 days of data reveal a consistent downward movement in import-parity prices. As a result, analysts expect cuts of up to 6.35 Pakistani rupees per litre, depending on the product category.
Petrol May Drop by Nearly Four Rupees
Petrol remains Pakistan’s most widely used transport fuel. According to early estimates, its price could fall by 3.70 rupees per litre. If authorities apply the full adjustment, the current price of 265.45 rupees may reduce to around 261.75 rupees per litre.
Additionally, even a moderate decline matters at a time when households continue to face rising food, utility and transportation costs. Petrol prices rose sharply over the past two years due to global market swings and persistent currency pressure. Therefore, many commuters view any reduction as an important financial breather.
High-Speed Diesel Also Shows a Downward Forecast
Expected Cut Could Ease Transport Costs
High-speed diesel plays a central role in Pakistan’s logistics, agriculture and public transport sectors. Experts expect its price to decrease by 4.28 rupees per litre, bringing the cost from 284.44 rupees to almost 280.16 rupees per litre.
Furthermore, a reduction in diesel prices often produces a wider economic impact. Lower transport costs can reduce freight charges. In turn, these lower costs help stabilize prices of essential goods. Farmers may also benefit because diesel fuels tube wells and harvesting machinery. Consequently, the cut may support agricultural activity during a crucial period.
Kerosene Likely to See Only Limited Relief
A Minor Price Change for Rural Households
Kerosene, which many rural families still use for cooking and heating, will likely see only a small decrease. Analysts forecast a reduction of 0.73 rupees per litre, shifting the current price from 194.34 rupees to about 193.61 rupees per litre.
Even so, this modest adjustment may still help low-income households. Demand for kerosene usually rises during winter months, and even slight price shifts influence household budgets. Therefore, the change remains relevant despite its limited scale.
Light Diesel Oil Expected to Experience the Largest Cut
A Drop of More Than Six Rupees Per Litre
Light diesel oil (LDO), commonly used by small industries, tube wells and some power generators, could receive the biggest price reduction. Forecasts indicate a decline of 6.35 rupees per litre, which would take the rate from 170.80 rupees down to roughly 164.45 rupees per litre.
Although LDO consumption has decreased over time, many small and medium-sized enterprises still depend on it. Consequently, a sizeable cut may offer relief to businesses facing high production costs. It may also support small-scale operators who rely on diesel-powered machinery.
Global Supply Improvements Drive the Expected Decline
International market trends clearly shaped these forecasts. Kuwait’s Al-Zour refinery, one of the largest in the region, restored several stalled units. As these units resumed operations, they increased regional availability of diesel, petrol and other refined fuels. This extra supply softened prices across Asian markets, including Pakistan.
Additionally, global crude oil prices stayed relatively stable throughout recent weeks. Brent crude moved within a narrow range, which prevented sudden increases in import costs. As a result, Pakistan gained a window to consider meaningful price reductions.
Short-Term Relief Amid Ongoing Structural Challenges
Despite this expected price relief, Pakistan still faces deep-rooted challenges in the energy sector. The country remains heavily dependent on fuel imports. Moreover, high taxation on petroleum products keeps domestic prices sensitive to even small market shifts. Exchange-rate fluctuations further complicate pricing decisions because a weaker currency quickly raises import costs.
Nevertheless, consumers will likely welcome any decrease, even if temporary. The government usually finalizes fuel prices after reviewing recommendations from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). Therefore, the official confirmation is expected shortly before the start of December.
