Islamabad: Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding “massive oil reserves” in Pakistan have sparked fresh debates both domestically and internationally. Speaking on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump claimed that the U.S. and Pakistan are collaborating on a major oil project — and even suggested that Pakistan might one day export oil to India.
This assertion has raised several questions in the domains of energy, diplomacy, and regional security.
What’s the Reality?
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Worldometer, Pakistan has proven oil reserves of approximately 353.5 million barrels, placing it 52nd globally. The country currently produces about 88,000 barrels of oil per day, while its daily demand exceeds 556,000 barrels — meaning over 85% of its oil is imported.
In this context, the idea of exporting oil to India seems far-fetched.
Where Did Trump’s Claim Come From?
Trump’s statement may be rooted not only in recent geological survey reports, but also in the context of a finalized U.S.-Pakistan oil trade deal, which outlines plans for joint exploration initiatives in key regions.
Pakistan’s Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and the Ministry of Energy have indeed reported new discoveries in Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but none of these sites are currently producing oil at a commercially viable scale.
Selling Oil to India: Dream or Delusion?
Experts agree that Pakistan’s current oil production and refining capacity are too limited to meet even domestic needs. The country’s daily refining capacity is around 450,000 barrels, which still falls short of national consumption.
To export oil to India, Pakistan would first need:
-
Verified, large-scale oil reserves
-
Multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure like pipelines, refineries, drilling equipment, and port facilities
Additionally, the tense political relationship between Pakistan and India makes the idea of energy trade highly unrealistic for now.
Economic & Security Challenges
Pakistan faces significant economic and logistical hurdles:
-
Low foreign reserves
-
High external debt
-
Large energy import bills
Experts estimate that even initial development of oil reserves would require at least $5 billion in investments.
Moreover, if U.S. companies begin oil operations near Gwadar or Balochistan — a possibility considered under the new Pakistan-U.S. economic partnership agreement — it could raise concerns for China.
Verdict: Hope or Hype?
Trump’s remarks may have brought short-term attention to Pakistan’s energy sector, but the ground realities tell a different story. Until substantial oil reserves are commercially developed, the idea of Pakistan exporting oil to India remains a political statement — not a near-term reality.
That said, with consistent long-term policies, sustained investment, and political stability, this dream could eventually become a reality — but that day is still far off.
