Equities showed mixed performance on Thursday as rising global oil prices dampened investor sentiment, while optimism over Pakistan’s progress in IMF negotiations helped limit losses.
Market Performance
The KSE-100 index traded between a high of 157,080.28 points (up 1,221.81 points or 0.78%) and a low of 153,503.70 points (down 2,354.77 points or 1.51%), against the previous close of 155,858.47. Analysts noted that the session reflected mixed investor reactions—oil price concerns weighed on the market, while IMF-related optimism provided support.
Huzaifa Riaz, Director at Mayari Securities, said: “Going forward, investors will closely monitor developments between the United States and Iran, with any sign of de-escalation likely to support equities.”
Global Oil Impact
Crude oil prices surged over $100 per barrel due to attacks on ships in Gulf waters and closure of oil terminals, intensifying fears of higher inflation and borrowing costs. Brent crude rose to $100.22 per barrel, while US crude reached $95.41. Asian markets fell, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 1.6% and Japan’s Nikkei declining 1.5%. U.S. futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down 1%.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced plans to release 400 million barrels from reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S., but the move had limited calming effect on markets. Meanwhile, Iraq reported that two fuel tankers were hit by explosive-laden Iranian boats, halting operations at its oil ports.
Domestic Economic Factors
Pakistan and the IMF are nearing a consensus on a revised macroeconomic and fiscal framework under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is expected to revise its tax collection target to Rs13.45 trillion by end-June 2026. Inflation for FY26 is projected at 7–7.5%, while the tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly to 10.6%.
According to Arif Habib Commodities’ CEO Ahsan Mehanti, institutional support from higher remittances, timely fuel reserve management, and the State Bank’s status quo in policy helped early positive activity at PSX.
Remittance Inflows
Overseas Pakistanis sent $3.29 billion in remittances in February, a 5.2% year-on-year increase. The UAE was the largest contributor at $696 million, followed by Saudi Arabia ($685.5 million), the UK ($532 million), and the US ($319 million). Within the UAE, Dubai led with $566 million, followed by Abu Dhabi and Sharjah.
PSX Rebounds as Institutional Investors Target Value Stocks
Market watchers remain cautious as oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence investor sentiment. Positive news from the IMF talks and remittance flows may provide some relief, but global uncertainties are likely to keep trading ranges wide.
