Economic losses caused by natural disasters worldwide reached an estimated $100 billion in the first half of 2026, according to reinsurance giant Swiss Re, marking a significant decline from the same period last year.
Swiss Re said in its latest report that losses were down sharply from the $152 billion recorded during the first half of 2025. The figure was also around 10% below the average for the first half of the previous decade.
The decline comes despite several major disasters, including severe storms in the United States and deadly earthquakes that struck Venezuela in June.
However, Swiss Re warned that the relatively lower losses recorded so far this year should not be interpreted as a sign that global disaster risks are easing.
Hurricane season could drive losses higher
Natural catastrophe losses typically rise during the second half of the year, largely because of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.
“A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away,” said Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s director of Catastrophe Perils.
“One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture,” he added.
The warning comes as severe weather continues to affect several parts of the world.
Wildfires becoming a growing threat
Europe has already experienced an early wildfire season after intense heat swept across the continent from June, with fires in France and Spain destroying thousands of homes, businesses and infrastructure.
Swiss Re said wildfire risk currently accounts for a relatively small proportion of insured losses in Europe, but described it as the fastest-growing weather-related peril globally.
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According to the reinsurance group, insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by approximately 8% to 11% annually since 1970, after adjustments for inflation and other factors.
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are adding pressure on insurers and governments to prepare for potentially higher future losses.
El Niño could increase weather risks
Swiss Re also warned that the El Niño climate pattern, which began in June and is expected to peak later this year, could influence disaster risks in several regions.
The climate pattern may affect tropical cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific and could also alter the risk of flooding, wildfires and other extreme weather events elsewhere, the company said.
Despite the decline in catastrophe losses during the first half of 2026, Swiss Re said several long-term factors continue to drive disaster-related costs higher.
These include increasing development and exposure in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, as well as rising costs for rebuilding homes and infrastructure after disasters.
The company stressed that the lower losses recorded so far this year should therefore not create a false sense of security, as a single major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire could significantly increase the global economic impact of natural disasters during the remainder of 2026.
