VIENNA: Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other key members of OPEC+ have agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) from September, completing the group’s planned reversal of voluntary production cuts.
The decision was announced following an online meeting on Sunday and comes amid continued uncertainty in global energy markets due to disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
Production increase widely expected
In a joint statement, the seven participating countries confirmed the output adjustment.
“The seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day.”
The increase had been widely anticipated by market analysts.
Voluntary production cuts fully unwound
According to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, the latest decision marks the completion of OPEC+’s voluntary production-cut reversal.
He said the group’s next challenge would be managing any future oversupply once export routes fully recover.
Leon noted that the immediate market impact would remain limited because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruptions.
Export constraints remain
Despite higher production targets, several Gulf producers have struggled to raise exports due to restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the regional conflict.
Analysts also point out that some OPEC+ members are unable to reach their production quotas because of declining production capacity.
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Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said higher output targets have become less meaningful for countries that cannot physically produce the additional volumes.
Fourth-quarter pause expected
The September increase completes the unwinding of the second of three production-cut packages introduced between 2022 and 2023 to support oil prices.
Rystad Energy expects OPEC+ to pause further production increases during the fourth quarter as members prepare for negotiations on production quotas for 2027.
The participating countries include:
- Saudi Arabia
- Russia
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Oman
Challenges ahead
Russia continues to face production challenges due to repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil infrastructure, while Iraq has expressed interest in significantly expanding output.
Analysts also believe OPEC+ could face difficult negotiations over future production quotas after the United Arab Emirates exited the group in May 2026.
